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每月動向

2024年10月基金投資動向

2024年10月04日

中國推出經濟刺激措施提振股市,加上美國減息週期展開並縮小與中國之間的利率差距,資金流入a股市場。

9月24日中國內地「一行一局一會」公佈一系列利好經濟及股市措施。 中國人民銀行行長、中國銀行保險監督管理委員會主席和中國證券監督管理委員會主席在新聞發布會上,介紹支持高質量經濟發展措施,推出降準、降息、降存量房貸利率、降二套房房貸最低首期比例等政策。人民銀行行長潘功勝表示,下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點,向金融市場提供長期流動性資金約1萬億元人民幣。今年內將視市場流動狀況,可能進一步下調存款準備金率。以金融角度支持房市,將存量房貸下調預期平均降幅0.5個百分點,預計5千萬家庭受惠,涉及人口1.5億。市場分析普遍認為,公佈的每項政策,其本身都具有重要意義外,兼形成了一個強大的政策組合,預計將比單個政策的總和更具影響力,有助於穩定和振興國內經濟。對於股市而言,基本面的改善與充足的流動性(降準,降息,境外資金流入以及長期資金進入市場)可能導致相對較強的改善,尤其是香港股市有望受益。至於債券市場,相對寬鬆的貨幣政策將繼續提供支持。

當前的股市情況顯示港股表現強勁。截至9月30日,恒指、國指和恆生科指分別收報21,133點、7,509點和4,751點,年初至今漲幅分別達到23.9%、30.2%和26.2%,超越全球其他主要股市指數。最近股市交易額大幅增加,9月30日更飆升至超過5,000億港元,刷新歷史記錄。季度比較顯示,恒指第三季累計漲幅達3,415點或19.3%;國指全季上漲1,177點或18.6%;而恒生科指則飆漲1,197點,漲幅更高達33.7%。受惠於內地利好經濟政策,市場對中國股市的樂觀情緒逐漸增強,各大行紛紛調升中港股市目標。

目前,美國納指市盈率超過30;道指市盈率約為25;日經指數約為23,而中港股市市盈率僅約11。從估值角度來看,在「資金往低估值流動」情況下,部分資金可能重新配置到內地和香港的股市。有市場報告指出,目前全球互惠基金在中國股票中的整體權重遠低於2021年水平,因此資金可能會調整以使中國的投資恢復到更合理的水平。

美國方面,9月18日美聯儲按市場預期,首次在超過4年後降低聯邦基金利率,降幅為0.5個百分點,將目標區間調整至4.75%至5%。美聯儲在會後聲明指出,雖然通脹率有所下降,但仍維持在相對較高水平。他們表示對於就業和通脹目標風險的平衡更具信心。市場認為不僅通脹是美國所面臨的風險,對勞動市場狀況的擔憂也在增加。因此,聯儲局有意透過主動降息來實現「軟著陸」。目前市場普遍認為降息已是必然,並且預測未來仍有進一步降息的空間,可能在接下來的兩次會議中每次再降0.25個百分點。投資者應該考慮調整投資組合,以應對將到來的降息週期。

9月美國的降息有助於縮小中美之間的利率差距,並吸引資金流入a股市場。這次降息也將為中國的貨幣政策提供更多寬鬆的空間,有利中央政府進一步刺激經濟和股市。a股市場的穩定將有助於港股的回升。然而,中國面臨的挑戰不僅限於經濟,地緣政治和貿易摩擦問題仍將持續存在。

利率下降有利債券價格,吸引投資者逐漸增加對投資級別債券的配置,以追求降息帶來的債券價格上升利潤。對於風險偏好較保守的個人投資者,他們通常會選擇投資級別的債券基金,因為這類基金的投資門檻較低,並有助於避免資金過度集中於單一公司帶來的風險。風險承受能力較高的投資者則更關注亞洲地區的高收益債券基金、股債平衡基金以及中港股票基金。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。



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上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供,所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製,惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊,並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式,包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險,投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌,而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權,在未獲本公司許可前,不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。

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