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	2024年6月基金投資動向 2024年06月07日市場再度揣測美國年内降息引發美股上升，中國經濟數據走向將影響中港股市走勢。加拿大央行在6月5日宣佈將利率下調0.25個百分點至4.75%，成為七國集團（g7）中最早採取掉頭降息行動的國家。該央行表示，他們有信心實現2%的通脹目標，如果通脹持續下降，他們有理由預期將進一步降息。翌日，歐洲央行亦宣佈降息0.25個百分點，將主要再融資利率從4.5%降至4.25%，存款工具利率從4%降至3.75%，邊際貸款利率從4.75%降至4.5%。這一系列降息舉措符合市場預期，也是自2019年以來的首次降息。美國的利率走勢如何？5月31日公佈的個人消費開支（pce）物價指數對美股有支持。該數據出台後，市場認為通脹未有進一步惡化，並再度揣測美聯儲可能會在今年内降息1-2次。道指當日上漲574點，漲幅達1.51%，逆轉該週連續三天下跌的趨勢。不過，最近美國前財長薩默斯（lawrence summers）提出了他的觀點，表示市場應該適應目前利率區間，並且長期來看，利率可能會高於當前水平。他指出，通脹並沒有持續朝著央行設定的2%目標發展。他預計美國經濟將放緩及出現軟著陸。此外，薩默斯認為如果特朗普當選總統，他廣泛的進口關稅措施可能會導致通脹顯著上升。市場將密切關注美國當地時間6月12日公佈的居民消費價格指數（cpi），以及美聯儲在同一天公佈的利率決議和會後聲明，以觀察是否會增加降息的預期。香港恒生指數於在5月20日高見19,706點後回落，並在5月31日低見18,077點，隨後在18,300 至18,700點之間徘徊。市場正在期待更多利好消息的出台，以進一步帶動股市成交金額回升，進而推高股市表現。中、港兩地經濟息息相關。根據數據顯示，5月份財新中國製造業採購經理指數（pmi）為51.7，比4月份上升了0.3個百分點，達到2022年7月以來的最高水平，表明製造業生產經營活動的擴張加速。然而，中國國家統計局最近公佈的5月份製造業pmi為49.5，下降了0.9個百分點，連續兩個月擴張後回落至收縮區間。市場分析認為，中國內地的製造業景氣度在5月份保持向好，企業保持樂觀情緒，但價格水平仍然偏低。另外，就業壓力較大、需求弱於供應仍然是當前中國經濟面臨的重要問題。香港股市受內地a股表現影響，倘若內地經濟數據能夠持續回升，將對中港股市有利。投資者透過基金組合投資，由專業投資經理管理，投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等，有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊，歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。免責聲明上述報告由致富證券有限公司(「本公司」)所提供，所載之內容或意見乃根據本公司認為可靠之資料來源來編製，惟本公司並不就此等內容之準確性、完整性及正確性作出明示或默示之保證。上述報告內之所有意見均可在不作另行通知之下作出更改。上述報告的作用純粹為提供資訊，並不應視為對上述報告內提及的任何產品買賣或交易之專業推介、建議、邀請或要約。本公司及其附屬公司、僱員及其家屬及有關人士可於任何時間持有、買賣或以市場認可之方式，包括以代理人或當事人對本報告內提及的任何產品進行投資或買賣。投資附帶風險，投資者需注意投資項目之價值可升亦可跌，而過往之表現亦不一定反映未來之表現。投資者進行投資前請尋求獨立之投資意見。本公司在法律上均不負責任何人因使用本報告內資料而蒙受的任何直接或間接損失。本公司擁有此報告內容之版權，在未獲本公司許可前，不得翻印、分發或發行本報告以作任何用途。