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每月動向

2024年7月基金投資動向

2024年07月08日

中港股市高位回落,美股表現亮麗,美聯儲釋放鴿派信號為股市重新注入樂觀情緒,燃起投資者對降息的期望。

港股恒生指數在上半年首季的一月份下跌至14,794點後回升,至5月下旬高見19,706點,從低位回升了4,912點,漲幅達33.2%。然而,後續表現反覆,截至6月底,恒指收報17,718點,較上半年高位回落1,988點或10.1%。

上半年結算表現,恒指和國指分別累計上漲3.94%和9.77%,科指則下跌5.56%。就三大指數第二季度表現而言,恒指較上季上漲7.12%,恒生科指累計上升2.21%,恒生國指則上揚8.97%。內地上證綜合指數半年度表現大致持平,微跌0.25%,收報2,967點。

最新公佈的六月份中國財新製造業採購經理指數(pmi)為51.8,連續八個月處於擴張水平,較五月份上升0.1個百分點,為自2021年6月以來的最高水平。相比之下,國家統計局公佈的製造業pmi為49.5,連續兩個月處於收縮水平。市場分析認為,出口對經濟提供了支持,但內需則仍然疲弱。

香港市場表現受內地經濟增長、a股表現,以及有利港股政策出台影響,投資者希望港股成交金額能夠獲得提振,加添港股上升動力。早前有傳內地監管機構正考慮研究減免內地個人投資者通過港股通投資香港上市公司,在取得股息紅利時所需繳納的20%所得稅。如果政策得以落實,將有助於刺激港股交投。

港滙受聯繫匯率影響,利率隨美元利率高企走高。近期加拿大和歐洲央行率先降息,市場希望這是環球利率見頂的信號,有助降低資金成本。

在美元強勁的背景下,以及科技股的上漲勢頭帶動,美股三大股票指數在上半年屢創新高,表現亮麗。截至6月底,道指、標指及納指分別累計漲幅達到3.79%、14.48%及18.13%。市場關注美國通脹走勢、美聯儲貨幣政策以及地緣政治等因素的發展。

美聯儲主席鮑威爾於7月2日在歐洲央行舉行的中央銀行論壇上表示,美聯儲在應對通脹方面已取得重要進展,美國就業市場正在降溫。鮑威爾的言論為股市重新注入樂觀情緒,燃起投資者對降息的希望。利率下降有助借貸成本回落,推動華爾街股市走揚。

投資者透過基金組合投資,由專業投資經理管理,投資組合可以分佈在不同地區、資產、行業、公司等,有助分散風險。客戶如欲查詢有關基金資訊,歡迎致電致富理財熱線: 2500 9188 聯絡我們。



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